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Page 1 1 Overview 1 Disclosure 1 Page 2 3 Explaining the EM pause 3 James Lord 3 Graphics Title: Exhibit 1: EM spreads have had a Recommendation start to the year 3 Graphics Title: Exhibit 2: Total returns in local markets over the past three months have been aggressive 3 Page 3 4 Not all dovish surprises are equal 4 Graphics Title: Exhibit 3: Earnings recession on track to begin in 1Q. Key question: How long and deep will it be? 4 Graphics Title: Exhibit 4: Don't expect a big upswing 4 Page 4 5 Not all dovish surprises are equal (CONT) 5 The EM-DM valuation gap matters 5 Graphics Title: Exhibit 5: EM/DM credit spreads have compressed 5 Page 5 6 Graphics Title: Exhibit 6: EM FX no longer screens cheap on our two-factor model 6 Graphics Title: Exhibit 7: High yield FX risk premia compressed vs low yield 6 The EM-DM valuation gap matters (CONT) 6 Graphics Title: Exhibit 8: EM FX skew reaching an extreme – lowest since May 2018 6 Graphics Title: Exhibit 9: The DM-EM volatility spread is no longer extreme 6 Page 6 7 Graphics Title: Exhibit 10: US (S&P 500) versus EM (MSCI) 12m forward P/E 7 Graphics Title: Exhibit 11: US (S&P 500) versus EM (MSCI) 12m trailing P/E 7 The EM-DM valuation

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