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Content 1 Global EM Strategist 1 | Global 1 Don't Get Carried Away 1 Overview: Trade de-escalation versus higher core yields 3 Exhibit 1: 3 EMFX tracking global growth concerns... 3 Exhibit 2: 3 ...as is EM HY credit 3 Exhibit 3: 4 Core yields starting to catch up with data surprises 4 Exhibit 4: 4 Global services PMI to converge with manufacturing? 4 Trading higher bond yields into the end of the year 6 Are this year's fixed income returns sustainable 6 2012 was the only year EM local duration rallied into year-end after 4%+ year-to-date returns through September 6 2012 year-end rally occurred during the introduction of QE3 by the Fed 7 EM hard currency 2019 double-digit returns not that unusual, with 2016 suggesting that a UST yield-driven sell-off would not necessarily lead to negative excess returns 7 Where are sensitivities to core yields the highest? 7 Historical betas of EM yields versus UST yields 7 Singapore and Chile 10y rates most correlated with 10y Treasuries 8 Exhibit 10: 8 CEE and Andean rates have most room to steepen 8 Correlations of EM yields to UST yields are much higher for EM IG, with HY less correlated... 8 ...although in spread terms all correlations are neg
- Author
- pdfg
- Language
- EN