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Page 1 1 Overview 1 Government Bonds 1 Inflation 1 Derivatives 1 Technical Analysis 1 Disclosure 1 Page 2 3 Government Bonds 3 United States 3 Euro area 3 Japan 3 Page 3 4 Japan (CONT) 4 United States 4 Page 4 5 United States (CONT) 5 Bullard: 25 vs. 50bp and the yield curve 5 Page 5 6 Bullard: 25 vs. 50bp and the yield curve (CONT) 6 Finally, Bullard also suggested that: 6 Market pricing after the first rate cut 6 Page 6 7 Graphics Title: Exhibit 1: # of 25bp hikes/cuts delivered every 12 months vs. # of 25bp cuts priced in over the next 12 months and the # of 25bp cuts required to hit the effective lower bound (ELB) 7 Market pricing after the first rate cut (CONT) 7 Graphics Title: Exhibit 2: Market-implied # of 25bp rate cuts in the next 12 months vs. CMT 2y yield since January 4, 2019 7 Graphics Title: Exhibit 3: Market-implied # of 25bp rate cuts in the next 12 months vs. target fed funds rate in 2007-2008 7 Page 7 8 Market pricing after the first rate cut (CONT) 8 How did the 2s10s curve behave in previous easing cycles? 8 Table Title: Exhibit 4: Fed easing cycles 8 Page 8 9 How did the 2s10s curve behave in previous easing cycles? (CONT) 9 Graphics Title: Exhibit 5: Easing c

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