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Page 1 1 Overview 1 Pushback: 1 Disclosure 1 Page 2 3 Overview (cont'd) 3 Nanya Tech – key debates: 3 Page 3 4 Feedback on Samsung (005930.KS, recommendation ) and SK Hynix (000660.KS, UW, covered by Shawn Kim) 4 Will the 2H19 demand recovery narrative change? 4 We think outlooks and guidance from most companies will move sharply lower during 1Q19... 4 ...and call into question the narrative of a perceived 2H demand recovery: 4 Page 4 5 Graphics Title: Exhibit 1: South Korea's semi exports vs. SK Hynix's stock price – retracing fundamentals 5 Graphics Title: Exhibit 2: The DRAM cycle has no correlation with seasonality - price, cycle and stock price 5 Will price expectations become incrementally more recommendation ? 5 Page 5 6 Graphics Title: Exhibit 3: The Memory Cycle Disconnect – Multiples Pre-Trading a Turn in the Cycle Too Soon 6 Graphics Title: Exhibit 4: One of the Most Challenging Memory Cycles in History 6 Graphics Title: Exhibit 5: DDR4 8Gb contract prices dropped 29% since Dec 2018 now below spot price 6 Graphics Title: Exhibit 6: NAND 64Gb MLC spot price declined 14% since Dec. 18 and now at 15% discount to contract price 6 Valuation is still cheap – but could get chea

Author

pdfg

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EN