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Page 1 1 Overview 1 Government Bonds 1 Inflation 1 Money Markets 1 Derivatives 1 Technical Analysis 1 Disclosure 1 Page 2 3 Government Bonds 3 United States 3 Euro area 3 United Kingdom 3 Japan 3 Page 3 4 Japan (CONT) 4 United States 4 Matthew Hornbach 4 How does the Fed read the yield curve? 4 Dallas Fed President Kaplan : 4 Page 4 5 Dallas Fed President Kaplan : (CONT) 5 Graphics Title: Exhibit 1: FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: March 2019 dot-plot 5 The asymmetry of cuts versus hikes 5 Page 5 6 The asymmetry of cuts versus hikes (CONT) 6 Graphics Title: Exhibit 2: Target fed funds rate and year-ahead fed funds futures pricing after each FOMC meeting from September 2006 to December 2006 6 What does this mean for 2y and 10y yields? 6 Graphics Title: Trade idea: Maintain long US (TY) and Canada (CN) futures versus short Germany (RX) and gilt (G) futures 6 Page 6 7 Euro area 7 Bund yields head higher, curves steeper, periphery tighter 7 Page 7 8 The case for Italian spread tightening may be building 8 Growth data improving 8 Page 8 9 Graphics Title: Exhibit 3: 10y BTP-Bund vs Italy Composite PMI 9 Graphics Title: Exhibit 4: Implied Price Target 9 Bad d

Author

pdfg

Language

EN