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Demographic Forecasting by Federico Girosi; Gary King is a book available to read on EtoBox.

What is Demographic Forecasting about?

<p><i>Demographic Forecasting</i> introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance.</p> <p>By showing how to include more informatio

Author

Federico Girosi; Gary King

Publisher

Princeton University Press

Published

2008

Language

EN

ISBN

9780691130941

Subjects

Science, Sociology, Economics