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Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries: Insights from a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective (European Studies of Population, 9) by Ewa Tabeau (auth.), Ewa Tabeau, Anneke van den Berg Jeths, Christopher Heathcote (eds.) is a nonfiction available to read on EtoBox.

What is Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries: Insights from a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective (European Studies of Population, 9) about?

Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of t

Who reads Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries: Insights from a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective (European Studies of Population, 9)?

Author

Ewa Tabeau (auth.), Ewa Tabeau, Anneke van den Berg Jeths, Christopher Heathcote (eds.)

Publisher

Springer Netherlands

Published

2001

Language

EN

ISBN

9780792368335

Category

nonfiction

Subjects

Medical, Science, Business