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Modelling the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus in Victoria, Australia, using an expert-systems approach by Mariel Flores Lima; Jacqueline Cotton; Monique Marais; Robert Faggian is a scholarly article available to read on EtoBox.

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Predictive models for vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are instrumental to understanding the potential geographic spread of VBDs and therefore serve as useful tools for public health decision-making. However, predicting the emergence of VBDs at the micro-, local, and regional levels presents challenges, as the importance of risk factors can vary spatially and temporally depending on climatic factors and vector and host abundance and preferences. We propose an expert-systems-based approach that uses an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) deployed within a geographic information system (GIS), to predict areas susceptible to the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) emergence. This modelling approach produces risk maps, identifying micro-level risk areas with the potential for disease emergence. The results revealed that climatic conditions, especially the minimum temperature and precipitation required for JEV transmission, contributed to high-risk conditions developed during January and March of 2022 in Victora. Compared to historical climate records, the risk of JEV emergence was increased in most parts of the state due to climate. Importantly, the model accurately predicted 7 out of

Author

Mariel Flores Lima; Jacqueline Cotton; Monique Marais; Robert Faggian

Publisher

BioMed Central

Published

2024

Language

EN