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This study analyzed dengue surveillance data from 2001 to 2014 in two Brazilian cities, Recife and Goiania. Time series analysis using ARIMA modeling was used to model monthly notified dengue incidence and develop forecasts for 2015. The models predicted 4254 cases for Recife and 33,757 for Goiania in 2015. However, the actual reported cases were much higher due to the emergence of Zika virus circulating in 2015.

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LANAFMPAIVA

Language

EN