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What is UK Macroeconomic Forecast Analysis about?
The paper analyzes a panel of UK macroeconomic forecasts, focusing on the evolution of consensus forecasts for GDP growth, unemployment rates, and retail price index changes from 1990 to 1997. It highlights the phenomenon of excess smoothness in consensus forecasts and examines the relationship between forecaster variability and forecast errors. The study employs exploratory data analysis techniques to uncover patterns in the data, noting that the consensus forecasts tend to converge towards actual outcomes
- Author
- Filipe Costa Vieira
- Language
- EN