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Validation of Coronal Mass Ejection Arrival-time Forecasts by Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations Based on Interplanetary Scintillation Observations by Kazumasa Iwai; Daikou Shiota; Munetoshi Tokumaru; Ken’ichi Fujiki; Mitsue Den; Yûki Kubo is a Earth and Planetary Sciences article available to read on EtoBox.

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## Abstract Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) cause various disturbances of the space environment; therefore, forecasting their arrival time is very important. However, forecasting accuracy is hindered by limited CME observations in interplanetary space. This study investigates the accuracy of CME arrival times at the Earth forecasted by three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations based on interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations. In this system, CMEs are approximated as spheromaks with various initial speeds. Ten MHD simulations with different CME initial speed are tested, and the density distributions derived from each simulation run are compared with IPS data observed by the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE), Nagoya University. The CME arrival time of the simulation run that most closely agrees with the IPS data is selected as the forecasted time. We then validated the accuracy of this forecast using 12 halo CME events. The average absolute arrival-time error of the IPS-based MHD forecast is approximately 5.0 h, which is one of the most accurate predictions that ever been validated, whereas that of MHD simulations without IPS data, in wh

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Author

Kazumasa Iwai; Daikou Shiota; Munetoshi Tokumaru; Ken’ichi Fujiki; Mitsue Den; Yûki Kubo

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Published

2021

Language

EN

Field

Earth and Planetary Sciences (Physical Sciences)