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What is Understanding Risk Misjudgment about?

People overestimate their ability to influence chance events and are overconfident in their risk assessments, which tend to be too narrow. When making forecasts, people anchor estimates to recent evidence despite risks of linear extrapolation, and they are subject to confirmation bias by favoring information supporting their positions. When events depart from expectations, people irrationally escalate commitment by directing more resources to failed courses of action.

Author

Sharwan Kumawat

Language

EN