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Exploring spatiotemporal nonstationary effects of climate factors on hand, foot, and mouth disease using Bayesian Spatiotemporally Varying Coefficients (STVC) model in Sichuan, China by Chao Song; Xun Shi; Yanchen Bo; Jinfeng Wang; Yong Wang; Dacang Huang is a Environmental Science article available to read on EtoBox.

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## Background: Pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease (hfmd) has generally been found to be associated with climate. however, knowledge about how this association varies spatiotemporally is very limited, especially when considering the influence of local socioeconomic conditions. this study aims to identify multi-sourced hfmd environmental factors and further quantify the spatiotemporal nonstationary effects of various climate factors on hfmd occurrence. ## Methods: We propose an innovative method, named spatiotemporally varying coefficients (stvc) model, under the bayesian hierarchical modeling framework, for exploring both spatial and temporal nonstationary effects in climate covariates, after controlling for socioeconomic effects. we use data of monthly county-level hfmd occurrence and data of related climate and socioeconomic variables in sichuan, china from 2009 to 2011 for our experiments. ## Results: Cross-validation experiments showed that the stvc model achieved the best average prediction accuracy (81.98%), compared with ordinary (68.27%), temporal (72.34%), spatial (75.99%) and spatiotemporal (77.60%) ecological models. the stvc model also outperformed these models in t

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Author

Chao Song; Xun Shi; Yanchen Bo; Jinfeng Wang; Yong Wang; Dacang Huang

Published

2018

Language

EN

Field

Environmental Science (Physical Sciences)