Can I read Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS Model on EtoBox?

Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS Model by Milner, Kevin R.; Field, Edward H.; Savran, William H.; Page, Morgan T.; Jordan, Thomas H. is a Earth and Planetary Sciences article available to read on EtoBox.

What is Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS Model about?

## Abstract The first Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3–epidemic-type aftershock sequence (UCERF3-ETAS) aftershock simulations were running on a high-performance computing cluster within 33 min of the 4 July 2019 M 6.4 Searles Valley earthquake. UCERF3-ETAS, an extension of the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), is the first comprehensive, fault-based, epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. It produces ensembles of synthetic aftershock sequences both on and off explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults to answer a key question repeatedly asked during the Ridgecrest sequence: What are the chances that the earthquake that just occurred will turn out to be the foreshock of an even bigger event? As the sequence unfolded—including one such larger event, the 5 July 2019 M 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake almost 34 hr later—we updated the model with observed aftershocks, finite-rupture estimates, sequence-specific parameters, and alternative UCERF3-ETAS variants. Although configuring and running UCERF3-ETAS at the time of the earthquake was not fully automated, considerable effort had been focused in 2018 on improving model documentation and ea

Who reads Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS Model?

Author

Milner, Kevin R.; Field, Edward H.; Savran, William H.; Page, Morgan T.; Jordan, Thomas H.

Publisher

Seismological Society of America; Seismological Society; Seismological Society of America (SSA) (ISSN 0895-0695)

Published

2020

Language

EN

Field

Earth and Planetary Sciences (Physical Sciences)