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What is Logit Model Forecasting Threshold Optimization about?

This document discusses using a logit model for forecasting binary outcomes and selecting a cutoff value to maximize the expected hit rate. (1) A researcher constructed a logit model and wants to use it to forecast probabilities (p̂i) for new binary outcome values (yi) and select a cutoff value (c) to transform the probabilities into 0/1 predictions. (2) The payoff matrix shows that correctly predicting 0 or 1 yields a payoff of 1, while incorrect predictions yield 0. (3) To maximize the expected payoff

Author

Alberto Aracén Duran

Language

EN