Can I read Timing contradictions in von Neumann and Morgenstern's axioms and in savage's ?sure-thing? proof on EtoBox?

Timing contradictions in von Neumann and Morgenstern's axioms and in savage's ?sure-thing? proof by Robin Pope is a Decision Sciences article available to read on EtoBox.

What is Timing contradictions in von Neumann and Morgenstern's axioms and in savage's ?sure-thing? proof about?

At the point of choice, let N be the delay in learning the outcome. Then von Neumann and Morgenstern's postulates contradictorily imply that N = 0 and N > 0. As a consequence, Savage's 'sure-thing' proof, which has bestowed on expected utility theory most of its normative appeal, depends on inconsistent assumptions. Further, the validity of Savage's proof cannot be retrieved by minimizing N > 0, by making the delay a mere moment or so. The historical origins of these contradictions are traced to (i) von Neumann and Morgenstern inadvertently limiting their risk model to the certain period, that is the period after gamblers learn the outcome(s), and (ii) Savage's use of the sure-thing principle for analysing "atemporally but also quite formally" compound gambles [Savage, 1954, p.

Who reads Timing contradictions in von Neumann and Morgenstern's axioms and in savage's ?sure-thing? proof?

Author

Robin Pope

Publisher

Springer US; Springer-Verlag; Kluwer Academic Publishers; Springer Science and Business Media LLC (ISSN 0040-5833)

Published

1985

Language

EN

Field

Decision Sciences (Social Sciences)