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Evaluation of Forecasting Methods for Intermittent Parts Demand in the Field of Aviation: a Predictive Model by Adel A. Ghobbar; Chris H. Friend is a Engineering article available to read on EtoBox.

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Owing to the sporadic nature of demand for aircraft maintenance repair parts, airline operators perceive difÿculties in forecasting and are still looking for superior forecasting methods. This paper deals with techniques applicable to predicting spare parts demand for airline eets. The experimental results of 13 forecasting methods, including those used by aviation companies, are examined and clariÿed through statistical analysis. The general linear model approach is used to explain the variation attributable to di erent experimental factors and their interactions. Actual historical data for hard-time and condition-monitoring components from an airlines operator are used, in order to compare di erent forecasting methods when facing intermittent demand. The results conÿrm the continued superiority of the weighted moving average, Holt and Croston method for intermittent demand, whereas most commonly used methods by airlines are found to be questionable, consistently producing poor forecasting performance. We have, however, devised a new approach to forecasting evaluation, a predictive error-forecasting model which compares and evaluates forecasting methods based on their factor level

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Author

Adel A. Ghobbar; Chris H. Friend

Publisher

Elsevier Science; Elsevier ; Elsevier Ltd.; Elsevier BV (ISSN 0305-0548)

Published

2003

Language

EN

Field

Engineering (Physical Sciences)