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Simulating foot-and-mouth dynamics and control in Bolivia by Cardenas, Nicolas C.; Santos, Diego Viali dos; Lima, Daniel Magalhaaes; Gutierrez, Hernan Oliver Daza; Vaca, Daniel Rodney Gareca; Machado, Gustavo is a scholarly article available to read on EtoBox.

What is Simulating foot-and-mouth dynamics and control in Bolivia about?

Examining the dissemination dynamics of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is critical for revising national response plans. We developed a stochastic SEIR metapopulation model to simulate FMD outbreaks in Bolivia and explore how the national response plan impacts the dissemination among all susceptible species. We explored variations in the control strategies, mapped high-risk areas, and estimated the number of vaccinated animals during the reactive ring vaccination. Initial outbreaks ranged from 1 to 357 infected farms, with control measures implemented for up to 100 days, including control zones, a 30-day movement ban, depopulation, and ring vaccination. Combining vaccination (50-90 farms/day) and depopulation (1-2 farms/day) controlled 60.3% of outbreaks, while similar vaccination but higher depopulation rates (3-5 farms/day) controlled 62.9% and eliminated outbreaks nine days faster. Utilizing depopulation alone controlled 56.76% of outbreaks, but had a significantly longer median duration of 63 days. Combining vaccination (25-45 farms/day) and depopulation (6-7 farms/day) was the most effective, eliminating all outbreaks within a median of three days (maximum 79 days). Vaccination

Author

Cardenas, Nicolas C.; Santos, Diego Viali dos; Lima, Daniel Magalhaaes; Gutierrez, Hernan Oliver Daza; Vaca, Daniel Rodney Gareca; Machado, Gustavo

Published

2025

Language

EN