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Use of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and a modified SPI for shaping the drought probabilities over Turkey by Murat Türkeş; Hasan Tatlı is a Environmental Science article available to read on EtoBox.

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## Abstract This paper suggests a new methodology for the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), for studying different aspects of drought events in Turkey, including intensity, frequency and identifying the spatial and temporal patterns. The classical SPI is locally defined; for instance, for monthly scale or running means, a drought event would begin when the precipitation amount is below its long‐term average. However, the proposed method considers the local‐time means of the precipitation series by fitting an upper and a lower envelope to precipitation data to obtain the SPI values, thus it explicitly assesses a __dry__ (or __wet__) spell of weather. When we consider the climatological/meteorological features of precipitation and the physical geographical controls of the climate over Turkey, it is found that the proposed method is more capable of estimating the probability of __dry__ or __wet__ conditions for a station's monthly precipitation totals (or running means) than if the SPI values are obtained using the classical method. Comparisons of the probability values calculated for the long‐term series and various time scales have revealed that the proposed method successfull

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Author

Murat Türkeş; Hasan Tatlı

Publisher

John Wiley and Sons; Wiley (John Wiley & Sons); John Wiley & Sons Inc.; Wiley (ISSN 0899-8418)

Published

2009

Language

EN

Field

Environmental Science (Physical Sciences)