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Estimating the reduction in US mortality if cigarettes were largely replaced by e-cigarettes by Peter N. Lee; John S. Fry; Stanley Gilliland; Preston Campbell; Andrew R. Joyce is a Environmental Science article available to read on EtoBox.

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## Abstract ## Background Recent estimates indicated substantially replacing cigarettes by e-cigarettes would, during 2016–2100, reduce US deaths and life-years lost (millions) by 6.6 and 86.7 (Optimistic Scenario) and 1.6 and 20.8 (Pessimistic). To provide additional insight we use alternative modelling based on a shorter period (1991–2040), four main smoking-associated diseases, deaths aged 30–79 years, and a full product history. We consider variations in: assumed effective dose of e-cigarettes versus cigarettes (F); their relative quitting rate (Q); proportions smoking after 10 years (X); and initiation rate (I) of vaping, relative to smoking. ## Methods We set F = 0.05, X = 5%, Q = 1.0 and I = 1.0 (Main Scenario) and F = 0.4, X = 10%, Q = 0.5 and I = 1.5 (Pessimistic Scenario). Sensitivity Analyses varied Main Scenario parameters singly; F from 0 to 0.4, X 0.01% to 15%, and Q and I 0.5 to 1.5. To allow comparison with prior work, individuals cannot be dual users, re-initiate, or switch except from cigarettes to e-cigarettes. ## Results Main Scenario reductions were 2.52 and 26.23 million deaths and life-years lost; Pessimistic Scenario reductions were 0.76 and 8.31 million. Th

Who reads Estimating the reduction in US mortality if cigarettes were largely replaced by e-cigarettes?

Author

Peter N. Lee; John S. Fry; Stanley Gilliland; Preston Campbell; Andrew R. Joyce

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Published

2021

Language

EN

Field

Environmental Science (Life Sciences)