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Extracting Key Information from Historical Data to Quantify the Transmission Dynamics of Smallpox by Hiroshi Nishiura; Stefan O Brockmann; Martin Eichner is a Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology article available to read on EtoBox.

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## Background Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data. ## Main findings First, critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second, we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the optimal timing of quarantine and isolation measures can be determined. Case studies demonstrate the following. (1) The upper confidence limit of the 99th percentile of the incubation period is 22.2 days, suggesting that quarantine should last 23 days. (2) The highest frequency (61.8%) of secondary transmissions occurs 3–5 days after onset of fever so that infected individuals should be isolated before the appearance of rash. (3) The U-shaped age-specific case fatality implies a vulnerability of infants and elderly among non-immune individuals. Estimates of

Who reads Extracting Key Information from Historical Data to Quantify the Transmission Dynamics of Smallpox?

Author

Hiroshi Nishiura; Stefan O Brockmann; Martin Eichner

Publisher

BioMed Central; Springer (Biomed Central Ltd.); [London]: BioMed Central, 2004-; Springer Science and Business Media LLC (ISSN 1742-4682)

Published

2008

Language

EN

Field

Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (Life Sciences)