Can I read Research on the predictive effect of a combined model of ARIMA and neural networks on human brucellosis in Shanxi Province, China: a time series predictive analysis on EtoBox?

Research on the predictive effect of a combined model of ARIMA and neural networks on human brucellosis in Shanxi Province, China: a time series predictive analysis by Zhai, Mengmeng (author);Li, Wenhan (author);Tie, Ping (author);Wang, Xuchun (author);Xie, Tao (author);Ren, Hao (author);Zhang, Zhuang (author);Song, Weimei (author);Quan, Dichen (author);Li, Meichen (author);Chen, Limin (author);Qiu, Lixia (author) is a Medicine article available to read on EtoBox.

What is Research on the predictive effect of a combined model of ARIMA and neural networks on human brucellosis in Shanxi Province, China: a time series predictive analysis about?

## Abstract ## Background Brucellosis is a major public health problem that seriously affects developing countries and could cause significant economic losses to the livestock industry and great harm to human health. Reasonable prediction of the incidence is of great significance in controlling brucellosis and taking preventive measures. ## Methods Our human brucellosis incidence data were extracted from Shanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We used seasonal-trend decomposition using Loess (STL) and monthplot to analyse the seasonal characteristics of human brucellosis in Shanxi Province from 2007 to 2017. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, a combined model of ARIMA and the back propagation neural network (ARIMA-BPNN), and a combined model of ARIMA and the Elman recurrent neural network (ARIMA-ERNN) were established separately to make predictions and identify the best model. Additionally, the mean squared error (MAE), mean absolute error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to evaluate the performance of the model. ## Results We observed that the time series of human brucellosis in Shanxi Province increased from 2

Who reads Research on the predictive effect of a combined model of ARIMA and neural networks on human brucellosis in Shanxi Province, China: a time series predictive analysis?

Author

Zhai, Mengmeng (author);Li, Wenhan (author);Tie, Ping (author);Wang, Xuchun (author);Xie, Tao (author);Ren, Hao (author);Zhang, Zhuang (author);Song, Weimei (author);Quan, Dichen (author);Li, Meichen (author);Chen, Limin (author);Qiu, Lixia (author)

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Published

2021

Language

EN

Field

Medicine (Health Sciences)