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--- - 1 1 After a V-shaped recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels, the global economy rises to its pre-COVID-19 path by 2Q21. Both DMs and EMs wil -1 For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. -1 --- - 2 2 4 The next phase of the V 4 A global synchronous recovery is taking hold 7 EMs boarding the reflation train 9 The inflation regi -1 StoryA-PGL -1 --- - 3 3 --- - 4 4 --- - 5 5 --- - 6 6 --- - 7 7 --- - 8 8 --- - 9 9 --- - 10 10 --- - 11 11 --- - 12 12 --- - 13 13 --- - 14 14 Country snapshots -1 --- - 15 15 --- - 16 16 --- - 17 17 Bull-base-bear scenarios – DM -1 --- - 18 18 Bull-base-bear scenarios – EM -1 --- - 19 19 US: Resilient and self-sustaining -1 --- - 20 20 Euro area: Second slump to robust recovery -1 --- - 21 21 Japan: Recovery continues under PM Suga -1 --- - 22 22 UK: Lagging on double trouble -1 --- - 23 23 Australia: Resilient reopener -1 --- - 24 24 China: Consumption roaring back -1 --- - 25 25 India: Gaining strength in 2021 -1 --- - 26 26 Indonesia: Goldilocks suits it best -1 --- - 27 27 Korea: Maintaining altitude after lift-off -1 --- - 28 28 Russia: Sailing through headwinds -1 --- - 29 29 Turkey: A fragile

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