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Influence of Hydroclimatic Variability on Dengue Incidence in a Tropical Dryland Area by Alexandre C. Costa; Ticiane F. Gomes; Rafaella P. Moreira; Tahissa F. Cavalcante; George L. Mamede is a Medicine article available to read on EtoBox.

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Dengue is an endemic disease in more than 100 countries, but there are few studies about the effects of hydroclimatic variability on dengue incidence (DI) in tropical dryland areas. This study investigates the association between hydroclimatic variability and DI (2008-2018) in a large tropical dryland area. The area studied comprehends seven municipalities with populations ranging from 32,879 to 2,545,419 inhabitants. First, the precipitation and temperature impacts on interannual and seasonal DI were investigated. Then, the monthly association between DI and hydroclimatic variables was analyzed using generalized least squares (GLS) regression. The model's capability to reproduce DI given the current hydroclimatic conditions and DI seasonality over the entire time period studied were assessed. No association between the interannual variation of precipitation and DI was found. However, seasonal variation of DI was shaped by precipitation and temperature. February-July was the main dengue season period. A precipitation threshold, usually above 100 mm, triggers the rapid DI rising. Precipitation and minimum air temperature were the main explanatory variables. A two-month-lagged predic

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Author

Alexandre C. Costa; Ticiane F. Gomes; Rafaella P. Moreira; Tahissa F. Cavalcante; George L. Mamede

Publisher

Elsevier BV

Published

2022

Language

EN

Field

Medicine (Health Sciences)