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What is Effective Predictions in Policy Making about?
Predictions are important for policymaking and international relations for three reasons: 1) Predictions allow for responsible decision making by considering educated guesses from various sources to prevent policy failures and catastrophes. 2) In international relations, incentives push scholars towards "hedgehog" predictions that try to explain everything with one big idea, but predictions work better when they acknowledge uncertainties like the "fox" approach of considering many factors. 3) While exac
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