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Social Structure in the Explanation and Prediction of Social Discontinuities: A Response to Lempert's Critique of the Multipath Forecasting Project (MFP) by Goldstone, Jack A. is a Social Sciences article available to read on EtoBox.

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is right to worry. When a new scholarly undertaking gets underway, drawing on scholars from diverse disciplinary backgrounds and adept at different methods, there are many hazards. The common ground could become a hodgepodge, undisciplined by any fundamental theory. The inability of different scholars to communicate across the advanced levels of their own discourses could result in a mix of simplified insights that produces no real advances. And in the effort to produce a new field or approach to a problem, the ethical issues of what could result from any significant findings might be set aside (problems that are already evident for advances in gene editing and artificial intelligence). So, I find that Lempert's essay offers a valuable set of insights and lessons. That said, I think the researchers that I am working with, both in the specific Turchin/Gavrilets/Goldstone project (Turchin et al. 2017) and the wider cliodynamics community, are aware of many of these issues. We may not have articulated them in prior sketches of the research plan, so let me respond to a few of these concerns here. And I apologize for doing so post hoc, rather than in the earlier plan. Let me start by sa

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Author

Goldstone, Jack A.

Publisher

Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantative History and Cultural Evolution; University of California eScholarship Repository; Riverside CA: University of California eScholarship Repository, 2010- (ISSN 2373-7530)

Published

2018

Language

EN

Field

Social Sciences