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Simulating Thaw-induced Land Cover Change in Discontinuous Permafrost Landscapes by Shaghayegh Akbarpour; James R. Craig is a Environmental Science article available to read on EtoBox.

What is Simulating Thaw-induced Land Cover Change in Discontinuous Permafrost Landscapes about?

Permafrost thaw is causing a rapid evolution of the lowland discontinuous permafrost regions of the Taiga Plains in Northern Canada and elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. Notably, this thaw is changing the spatial distribution of the dominant hydrologic land cover types (permafrost plateaus, fens, and isolated bogs) in parts of the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada. Here, we develop a multinomial time series land cover model (TSLCM) to simulate historical land cover transitions, model spatial patterns of transition, and predict the long term evolution of land cover in the areas surrounding the Scotty Creek Research Station (SCRS), NWT, and similar discontinuous permafrost landscapes. The machine learning-based TSLCM is informed by a set of observed spatio-temporal variables. The independent variables represent driving factors of change, and include the estimated summertime land surface temperature anomaly (LST), the distance and a custom cost distance to land cover interfaces, time increment between initial and final states, and time-accumulated temperature; the dependent variable is classified land cover maps from 1970 to 2008. First, we applied both random forest (RF) and Mu

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Author

Shaghayegh Akbarpour; James R. Craig

Publisher

Elsevier BV

Published

2022

Language

EN

Field

Environmental Science (Physical Sciences)