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Modelling the Spread of Phocine Distemper Virus among Harbour Seals by Aline de Koeijer; Odo Diekmann; Peter Reijnders is a Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology article available to read on EtoBox.

What is Modelling the Spread of Phocine Distemper Virus among Harbour Seals about?

Data presented in earlier publications on the 1988 epizootic among seals in North West Europe show a pattern that is somewhat inconsistent with the predictions of the standard mathematical model of epidemics. We argue that for animals living in herds or colonies, such as seals, the mutual contact behaviour is such that models for the transmission of infectious diseases should be applied with special care for the distinction between numbers and densities. This is demonstrated by using a mechanistic description of the contacts among seals, which leads to a slightly different formulation of the model. Results of the analysis of this formulation are more in line with the data. The model introduced here can be applied to epidemics among all kinds of animals living in herds and in fact to any species with constant local density, independent of the total population size (i.e., occupying a variable area). Application of the traditional formulation, using different parameters for herds of different sizes, will give equally good results for non-lethal diseases. However, especially for diseases with a low R 0 and high death rates, such as the phocine distemper virus (PDV) disease, the two mod

Who reads Modelling the Spread of Phocine Distemper Virus among Harbour Seals?

Author

Aline de Koeijer; Odo Diekmann; Peter Reijnders

Publisher

Springer; Springer-Verlag; Springer New York LLC; Mathematical Biology, Inc; Springer Science and Business Media LLC; Society for Mining, Metallurgy and Exploration Inc. (ISSN 1522-9602)

Published

1998

Language

EN

Field

Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (Life Sciences)