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Spatial spillover effect of environmental factors on the tuberculosis occurrence among the elderly: a surveillance analysis for nearly a dozen years in eastern China by Luo, Dan (author);Wang, Luyu (author);Zhang, Mengdie (author);Martinez, Leonardo (author);Chen, Songhua (author);Zhang, Yu (author);Wang, Wei (author);Wu, Qian (author);Wu, Yonghao (author);Liu, Kui (author);Xie, Bo (author);Chen, Bin (author) is a Medicine article available to read on EtoBox.

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## Background In many areas of China, over 30% of tuberculosis cases occur among the elderly. We aimed to investigate the spatial distribution and environmental factors that predicted the occurence of tuberculosis in this group. ## Methods Data were collected on notified pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases aged ≥ 65 years in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2021. We performed spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal scan statistics to determine the clusters of epidemics. Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) analysis was used to identify significant environmental factors and their spatial spillover effects. ## Results 77,405 cases of PTB among the elderly were notified, showing a decreasing trend in the notification rate. Spatial-temporal analysis showed clustering of epidemics in the western area of Zhejiang Province. The results of the SDM indicated that a one-unit increase in PM~2.5~ led to a 0.396% increase in the local notification rate. The annual mean temperature and precipitation had direct effects and spatial spillover effects on the rate, while complexity of the shape of the greenspace (SHAPE\_AM) and SO~2~ had negative spatial spillover effects. ## Conclusion Targeted intervention

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Author

Luo, Dan (author);Wang, Luyu (author);Zhang, Mengdie (author);Martinez, Leonardo (author);Chen, Songhua (author);Zhang, Yu (author);Wang, Wei (author);Wu, Qian (author);Wu, Yonghao (author);Liu, Kui (author);Xie, Bo (author);Chen, Bin (author)

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Published

2024

Language

EN

Field

Medicine (Health Sciences)