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Validation of the Surprise Question and the Development of a Multivariable Model by Mellar Davis; Erin Vanenkevort; Amanda Young; Mark Wojtowicz; Braxton Lagerman; Mudit Gupta; Christian Adonizio; Rajiv Panikkar is a Medicine article available to read on EtoBox.

What is Validation of the Surprise Question and the Development of a Multivariable Model about?

Context The Surprise Question (SQ) (would you be surprised if this patient died within a year?) is a prognostic variable explored in chronic illnesses. Validation is limited to sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. Objectives Our objective is to validate the SQ in cancer patients and develop a predictive model with additional variables. Methods A prospective cohort study of adult (age>18) cancer patients seen between October 1, 2019, through March 31, 2021, undergoing systemic therapies had the SQ completed by oncologists prior to each change in systemic therapy. The primary outcome was survival for one year. Secondary outcomes were predictions of survival at three, six, and nine months. Patients were grouped into negative SQ (not surprised) and positive SQ (surprised). Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated for the SQ. Additional prognostic variables were age, gender, cancer stage, line of therapy, Charleson Comorbid Index (CCI), palliative care consultation (prior to, after the SQ, or not at all), and healthcare utilization (outpatient, inpatient, and emergency department (ED). Logistic regression and receiver operating

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Author

Mellar Davis; Erin Vanenkevort; Amanda Young; Mark Wojtowicz; Braxton Lagerman; Mudit Gupta; Christian Adonizio; Rajiv Panikkar

Publisher

Elsevier BV

Published

2023

Language

EN

Field

Medicine (Health Sciences)