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World Economic Prospects Monthly is a Economics, Econometrics and Finance article available to read on EtoBox.

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Overview: Stronger recovery will not unleash inflation ▀ Although we have upgraded our global GDP growth forecast for 2021 again, to 6.0% from 5.6%, we do not expect this to trigger a sustained rise in inflationary pressures. We still view the pandemic as being disinflationary and expect the low inflation/low yield environment of the past decade to persist. ▀ The US looks set for an even bigger fiscal boost than we had expected a month ago, and its GDP growth is now seen at 7.0% this year. We expect the full $1.9trn of fiscal measures to be passed, rather than the $1.3trn package previously assumed. Strong US demand and a fall in global Covid cases bode well for the world economy. ▀ However, a growing concern is that the ongoing substantial global fiscal support, combined with the release of pent‐up demand as restrictions are eased, may cause a sustained pick‐up in inflation. Although we expect some factors, many of which are a direct consequence of the pandemic, and rising oil prices to lead to higher headline inflation in the short term, we do not see a sustained overshoot of inflation targets. ▀ First, fiscal policy is expected to be a bit tighter at a global level this year tha

Who reads World Economic Prospects Monthly?

Publisher

Wiley

Published

2021

Language

EN

Field

Economics, Econometrics and Finance (Social Sciences)