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433. Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission by a k Phases SEIR Model by Couto, Braulio Roberto Gonçalves Marinho ;Starling, Carlos Ernesto Ferreira is a Medicine article available to read on EtoBox.

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## Abstract ## Background Mathematical models can provide insights on the spread of infectious diseases, such as the novel SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). This work applied a SEIR epidemiological compartmental model (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) with k phases to predict the actual spread of the COVID-19 virus. Fig. 1 – SEIR model for COVID-19. ## Methods Four parameters of the SEIR model were obtained by international experiences: the incubation period = 3.7 in days, the proportion of critical cases = 0.05, the overall case-fatality rate = 0.023, and the asymptomatic proportion of COVID-19 = 0.18. The critical step in the prediction of COVID-19 by the model is the value of **R0** (the basic reproduction number) and **T\_infectious** (the infectious period, in days). **R0** and **T\_infectious** for each phase of the curve are calculated by mathematical constrained optimization, a numerical method. Differently from a statistical modelling, a numerical method is a type of mathematical modelling that is not dependent on a probability distribution. The objective function that measures the model error is minimized with respect to **R0** and **T\_infectious** in the presence of constra

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Author

Couto, Braulio Roberto Gonçalves Marinho ;Starling, Carlos Ernesto Ferreira

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Published

2020

Language

EN

Field

Medicine (Health Sciences)