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Proceedings of the 36th Annual ACM Symposium on Applied Computing by Miranda, Pedro (author);Faria, J. Pascoal (author);Correia, Filipe F. (author);Fares, Ahmed (author);Graça, Ricardo (author);Moreira, João Mendes (author) is a nonfiction available to read on EtoBox.

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Forecasts of the effort or delivery date can play an important role in managing software projects, but the estimates provided by development teams are often inaccurate and time-consuming to produce. This is not surprising given the uncertainty that underlies this activity. This work studies the use of Monte Carlo simulations for generating forecasts based on project historical data. We have designed and run experiments comparing these forecasts against what happened in practice and to estimates provided by developers, when available. Comparisons were made based on the mean magnitude of relative error (MMRE). We did also analyze how the forecasting accuracy varies with the amount of work to be forecasted and the amount of historical data used. To minimize the requirements on input data, delivery date forecasts for a set of user stories were computed based on takt time of past stories (time elapsed between the completion of consecutive stories); effort forecasts were computed based on full-time equivalent (FTE) hours allocated to the implementation of past stories. The MMRE of delivery date forecasting was 32% in a set of 10 runs (for different projects) of Monte Carlo simulation bas

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Author

Miranda, Pedro (author);Faria, J. Pascoal (author);Correia, Filipe F. (author);Fares, Ahmed (author);Graça, Ricardo (author);Moreira, João Mendes (author)

Publisher

ACM

Published

2021

Language

EN

Category

nonfiction