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SIE‐Climate: A methodological and technological tool for predicting local climate variability in managing socio‐ecological systems by Erika Sierra‐Cárdenas; Olga Usaquén‐Perilla; Mauricio Fonseca‐Molano; Mauricio Ochoa‐Echeverría; Jaime Díaz‐Gómez; Manuel del Jesus is a Environmental Science article available to read on EtoBox.
What is SIE‐Climate: A methodological and technological tool for predicting local climate variability in managing socio‐ecological systems about?
Climate variability, as an element of uncertainty in water management, affects community, sectoral, and individual decision-making. Long-range prediction models are tools that offer the potential for integration and joint analysis with the hydrological, hydrodynamic, and management response of the socioecological systems to which they are linked. The main objective of this article is to present a seasonal climate prediction model, the open-source algorithm SIE-Climate, whose application consists of three phases (exploration, development, and evaluation), and to describe its application to the Lake Sochagota socio-ecological system (Paipa, Boyac a, Colombia). The K-nearest neighbours method is used when defining a target matrix that represents and integrates macro-and micro-climatic phenomena (Oceanic Niño Index, local temperature, and local rainfall) to identify periods of similar climatic behaviour. Considering a 1-year horizon and management purposes the tool is calibrated and validated in periods with and without climatic anomalies (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018), giving reliable adjustment result
Who reads SIE‐Climate: A methodological and technological tool for predicting local climate variability in managing socio‐ecological systems?
It is typically read by researchers, students, and practitioners in Environmental Science.
- Author
- Erika Sierra‐Cárdenas; Olga Usaquén‐Perilla; Mauricio Fonseca‐Molano; Mauricio Ochoa‐Echeverría; Jaime Díaz‐Gómez; Manuel del Jesus
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2021
- Language
- EN
- Field
- Environmental Science (Physical Sciences)