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Can I read Standard Assessments of Climate Forecast Skill Can Be Misleading on EtoBox?
Standard Assessments of Climate Forecast Skill Can Be Misleading by James S. Risbey; Dougal T. Squire; Amanda S. Black; Timothy DelSole; Chiara Lepore; Richard J. Matear; Didier P. Monselesan; Thomas S. Moore; Doug Richardson; Andrew Schepen; Michael K. Tippett; Carly R. Tozer is a Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology article available to read on EtoBox.
What is Standard Assessments of Climate Forecast Skill Can Be Misleading about?
Assessments of climate forecast skill depend on choices made by the assessor. In this perspective, we use forecasts of the El Niño-Southern-Oscillation to outline the impact of bias-correction on skill. Many assessments of skill from hindcasts (past forecasts) are probably overestimates of attainable forecast skill because the hindcasts are informed by observations over the period assessed that would not be available to real forecasts. Differences between hindcast and forecast skill result from changes in model biases from the period used to form forecast anomalies to the period over which the forecast is made. The relative skill rankings of models can change between hindcast and forecast systems because different models have different changes in bias across periods.
Who reads Standard Assessments of Climate Forecast Skill Can Be Misleading?
It is typically read by researchers, students, and practitioners in Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology.
- Author
- James S. Risbey; Dougal T. Squire; Amanda S. Black; Timothy DelSole; Chiara Lepore; Richard J. Matear; Didier P. Monselesan; Thomas S. Moore; Doug Richardson; Andrew Schepen; Michael K. Tippett; Carly R. Tozer
- Publisher
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC
- Published
- 2021
- Language
- EN
- Field
- Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (Life Sciences)