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Accident Prediction Model Applied to Motorway A29 in Portugal by Sara Ferreira; António Couto; António Lobo; Suellen Souza; César De Santos-Berbel; João Neves is a book available to read on EtoBox.

What is Accident Prediction Model Applied to Motorway A29 in Portugal about?

Road accidents are still one of the biggest public health problems in the world, and research must be stepped up to tackle the issue. The present study describes the development of a statistical model for predicting accidents occurring on motorway segments over the period 2015-19. The case study comprises 218 tangents and curves, separately for either direction, of motorway A29 in Portugal, which is operated by Ascendi under a concession awarded by the Portuguese state. Exposure, geometric design variables, and annual trend were incorporated to the model, considering a negative binomial probability distribution, and a flexible function form allowing non-constant elasticity values was utilized. In addition to the exposure variables, the geometric design risk factors found to be significant were the horizontal curvature, and the presence of deceleration lane. A significant decreasing in accident annual trend was also observed. The fitted model was validated using cumulative residual plots. The results obtained allowed the prediction of accident frequency as well as the identification of the design risk factors.

Author

Sara Ferreira; António Couto; António Lobo; Suellen Souza; César De Santos-Berbel; João Neves

Publisher

Springer Nature Switzerland AG

Published

2023

Language

EN

ISBN

9783031291906

Subjects

Computer Science, Engineering, Science