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Page 1 1 Cut earnings, but sound ESG and domestic names with solid balance sheets 1 Cargo locomotive: COVID-19 clouds short-term demand; look beyond 2020E 1 EMU: Stable demand given HSR’s potentially higher market share 1 Prefer CRSC/CRRC-H; downgrade Zhuzhou CRRC to Neutral on likely margin risk 1 Table Title: Figure 1: Valuation summary 1 Disclosure 1 Page 2 3 PIVOTAL QUESTIONS 3 UBS VIEW 3 EVIDENCE 3 WHAT'S PRICED IN? 3 Graphics Title: Performance Analysis 3 Page 3 4 Healthy financials 4 Graphics Title: Figure 2: Net cash as a % of the total market caps 4 Graphics Title: Figure 3: Cash dividend yield, 2019 (%) 4 High ESG and low overseas exposure 4 Graphics Title: Figure 4: ESG exposure (2019) – % of gross profit 4 Graphics Title: Figure 5: Overseas exposure (2019) – % of revenue 4 Page 4 5 Cutting capex, but improved outlook during 14th FYP 5 Graphics Title: Figure 6: CR’s railway equipment spending (for new vehicles + maintenance service) 5 Earnings revisions 5 Table Title: Figure 7: UBS-S’s earnings revisions (Rmb m) 5 Page 5 6 Q: Will demand for cargo locomotives continue to drop sharply following the double-digit decline in 2019? 6 Page 6 7 Q: Will demand for cargo locomoti

Language

ZH