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Honesty and Accuracy by Martin G. Richards is a Social Sciences article available to read on EtoBox.

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## Honesty and Accuracy Planners generally seem to regard the numeric outcome of their analyses and forecasts in a manner which belies their accuracy. Results are quoted and applied as precise statements of what will happen, or indeed what is happening right now. Yet, hopefully, underlying this overt faith, there is a realisation of the errors and uncertainties inherent in their work, and of the fact that their results are only an estimate, and possibly not a very good estimate at that. This fact is not something to be ashamed of. Indeed, surely there is more to be ashamed of by implying a false degree of accuracy than in openly admitting the unavoidable presence of errors and uncertainty? Errors occur in our data due to sampling, survey design and the actual process of collection. Errors exist in our models due to deficiencies in specifications, as well as calibration or estimation procedures. Uncertainties exist in our forecasts because we have to speculate about the future, and rarely can we be sure of the precise nature of that future. These are all legitimate sources of inaccuracy, some of which we can reduce, others of which we can do little about. But clearly there is a grea

Who reads Honesty and Accuracy?

Author

Martin G. Richards

Publisher

Springer US; Springer-Verlag; Kluwer Academic Publishers; Springer Science and Business Media LLC; Society for Mining, Metallurgy and Exploration Inc. (ISSN 0049-4488)

Published

1981

Language

EN

Field

Social Sciences