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The Development of Traffic and Traffic Safety in Six Developed Countries by Siem Oppe is a Engineering article available to read on EtoBox.

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Two models are presented, describing the development of traffic and traffic safety. Traffic volumes, measured by the total amount of vehicle kilometers per year, are expected to follow a sigmoid saturation curve over time. The logistic function is used to model this development. The fatality rate, the number of fatalities per vehicle kilometer, is chosen to measure safety. The (negative) exponential function is selected to model the fatality rates over time. It is argued that these two aspects of the traffic system are fundamental and that the development of the number of fatalities results by multiplication. Given this assumption, the fall in the number of fatalities, noticed in almost all developed countries after a steady increase until 1970, does not need a special explanation. It follows from the combination of the monotonically increasing traffic volumes and the monotonically decreasing fatality rates. The two parsimonious models fit the data fairly well for six developed countries. The parameters differ substantially between countries, but also show common features. It is found from the parameters of the logistic function, that for all countries the points of maximum increas

Who reads The Development of Traffic and Traffic Safety in Six Developed Countries?

Author

Siem Oppe

Publisher

Elsevier Science; Elsevier ; Elsevier Ltd.; Elsevier BV (ISSN 0001-4575)

Published

1991

Language

EN

Field

Engineering (Physical Sciences)