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Climate shifts within major agricultural seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C worlds: HAPPI projections and AgMIP modeling scenarios by Ruane, Alex C.; Phillips, Meridel M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia is a Environmental Science article available to read on EtoBox.

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This study compares climate changes in major agricultural regions and current agricultural seasons associated with global warming of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions. It describes the generation of climate scenarios for agricultural modeling applications conducted as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments. Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Focusing on food and agricultural systems and top-producing breadbaskets in particular, we distinguish maize, rice, wheat, and soy season changes from global annual mean climate changes. Many agricultural regions warm at a rate that is faster than the global mean surface temperature (including oceans) but slower than the mean land surface temperature, leading to regional warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds. Agricultural growing seasons warm at a pace slightly behind the annual temperature trends in most

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Author

Ruane, Alex C.; Phillips, Meridel M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

Publisher

Elsevier Science; Elsevier ; Elsevier BV (ISSN 0168-1923)

Published

2018

Language

EN

Field

Environmental Science (Physical Sciences)