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Forecasting the carbon emissions in Hubei Province under the background of carbon neutrality: a novel STIRPAT extended model with ridge regression and scenario analysis by Congjun Rao; Qifan Huang; Lin Chen; Mark Goh; Zhuo Hu is a Environmental Science article available to read on EtoBox.

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The impact of global greenhouse gas emissions is increasingly serious, and the development of green low-carbon circular economy has become an inevitable trend for the development of all countries in the world. To achieve emission peak and carbon neutrality is the primary goal of energy conservation and emission reduction. As the core province in central China, Hubei Province is under prominent pressure of carbon emission reduction. In this paper, the future development trend of carbon emissions is analyzed, and the emission peak value and carbon peak time in Hubei Province is predicted. Firstly, the generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) model is proposed to determine the main influencing factors of carbon emissions in Hubei Province. Secondly, based on the main influencing factors identified, a novel STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) extended model with ridge regression is established to predict carbon emissions. Thirdly, the scenario analysis method is used to set the variables of the STIRPAT extended model and to predict the emission peak value and carbon peak time in Hubei Province. The results show that Hubei Province's carbon

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Author

Congjun Rao; Qifan Huang; Lin Chen; Mark Goh; Zhuo Hu

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Published

2023

Language

EN

Field

Environmental Science (Physical Sciences)