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Population Persistence in Florida Torreya: Comparing Modeled Projections of a Declining Coniferous Tree by Mark W. Schwartz; Sharon M. Hermann; Phillip J. Van Mantgem is a Environmental Science article available to read on EtoBox.

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**Abstract:** The Florida torreya ( __Torreya taxifolia__) is a coniferous tree endemic to a 35‐km stretch of bluffs and ravines along the east side of the Apalachicola River in northern Florida and southern Georgia. This formerly locally abundant tree has declined as a result of disease during the 1950s and is on the U.S. endangered species list. With no seed production in the wild, this species is headed toward extinction. We conducted a survey on roughly 200 trees from 1988 to 1996 and used these data to estimate the likelihood of population persistence during the next several decades. We compared a stage‐class transition matrix model ( RAMAS) and an individual‐based stochastic model ( TORSIM) of growth and mortality to project future populations. Given the current lack of seed production in the wild, all models predict extinction. The question of concern is the imminence of this predicted extinction. Differing predicted times to extinction would suggest different immediate management recommendations. Both models predicted an over 90% likelihood of persistence during the next 50 years. Predictions differed in that the transition matrix model was less optimistic than the individ

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Author

Mark W. Schwartz; Sharon M. Hermann; Phillip J. Van Mantgem

Publisher

John Wiley and Sons; Wiley (Blackwell Publishing); Blackwell Publishing Inc.; Wiley (ISSN 0888-8892)

Published

2000

Language

EN

Field

Environmental Science (Physical Sciences)