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Estimation of the Probability of Collision Between Two Catalogued Orbiting Objects by N. Bérend is a Physics and Astronomy article available to read on EtoBox.

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This paper deals with the estimation of the probability of collision corresponding to a single predicted close approach between two catalogued orbiting objects. By assuming normally distributed position uncertainties at the estimated closest approach time and a quasi-rectilinear relative trajectory about this time, we get a simple formula that takes into account the dynamics and the geometry of the close approach. The validity of the method has been verified with Monte-Carlo simulations for close encounter configurations derived from the Cerise collision that occurred on July 24, 1996. If we do not know the global amplitude of the position uncertainties, we can nonetheless estimate the highest value the probability can reach. For the Cerise collision and the 830 m estimated miss-distance we get from the TLE orbital data available before the event, the maximum collision probability we could have was about 10m6, which shows the necessity of an improved orbit determination for a correct assessment of the collision risk.

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Author

N. Bérend

Publisher

Elsevier Science; Elsevier ; Elsevier Ltd.; Elsevier BV (ISSN 0273-1177)

Published

1999

Language

EN

Field

Physics and Astronomy (Physical Sciences)