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This paper formalizes the secular stagnation hypothesis, highlighting a persistently low or negative natural rate of interest that leads to a binding zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rates. It utilizes a quantitative life cycle model calibrated to US data, indicating that demographic and technological factors contribute significantly to the decline in interest rates since 1970. The findings suggest that without aggressive fiscal policies, the economy may remain in a state of secular stagnation with low gr

Author

van.nt00958

Language

EN