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Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in 14.8 million individuals in Bahia, Brazil by Oliveira, Juliane F. (author);Jorge, Daniel C. P. (author);Veiga, Rafael V. (author);Rodrigues, Moreno S. (author);Torquato, Matheus F. (author);da Silva, Nivea B. (author);Fiaccone, Rosemeire L. (author);Cardim, Luciana L. (author);Pereira, Felipe A. C. (author);de Castro, Caio P. (author);Paiva, Aureliano S. S. (author);Amad, Alan A. S. (author);Lima, Ernesto A. B. F. (author);Souza, Diego S. (author);Pinho, Suani T. R. (author);Ramos, Pablo Ivan P. (author);Andrade, Roberto F. S. (author) is a Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology article available to read on EtoBox.

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## Abstract COVID-19 is affecting healthcare resources worldwide, with lower and middle-income countries being particularly disadvantaged to mitigate the challenges imposed by the disease, including the availability of a sufficient number of infirmary/ICU hospital beds, ventilators, and medical supplies. Here, we use mathematical modelling to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Bahia, a state in northeastern Brazil, considering the influences of asymptomatic/non-detected cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. The impacts of policies on the transmission rate were also examined. Our results underscore the difficulties in maintaining a fully operational health infrastructure amidst the pandemic. Lowering the transmission rate is paramount to this objective, but current local efforts, leading to a 36% decrease, remain insufficient to prevent systemic collapse at peak demand, which could be accomplished using periodic interventions. Non-detected cases contribute to a ∽55% increase in R~0~. Finally, we discuss our results in light of epidemiological data that became available after the initial analyses.

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Author

Oliveira, Juliane F. (author);Jorge, Daniel C. P. (author);Veiga, Rafael V. (author);Rodrigues, Moreno S. (author);Torquato, Matheus F. (author);da Silva, Nivea B. (author);Fiaccone, Rosemeire L. (author);Cardim, Luciana L. (author);Pereira, Felipe A. C. (author);de Castro, Caio P. (author);Paiva, Aureliano S. S. (author);Amad, Alan A. S. (author);Lima, Ernesto A. B. F. (author);Souza, Diego S. (author);Pinho, Suani T. R. (author);Ramos, Pablo Ivan P. (author);Andrade, Roberto F. S. (author)

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Published

2021

Language

EN

Field

Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (Life Sciences)