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Investment in Antiviral Drugs: a Real Options Approach by Arthur E. Attema; Anna K. Lugnér; Talitha L. Feenstra is a Economics, Econometrics and Finance article available to read on EtoBox.

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## Abstract Real options analysis is a promising approach to model investment under uncertainty. We employ this approach to value stockpiling of antiviral drugs as a precautionary measure against a possible influenza pandemic. Modifications of the real options approach to include risk attitude and deviations from expected utility are presented. We show that risk aversion counteracts the tendency to delay investment for this case of precautionary investment, which is in contrast to earlier applications of risk aversion to real options analysis. Moreover, we provide a numerical example using real world data and discuss the implications of real options analysis for health policy. Suggestions for further extensions of the model and a comparison with the expected value of information analysis are put forward. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Who reads Investment in Antiviral Drugs: a Real Options Approach?

Author

Arthur E. Attema; Anna K. Lugnér; Talitha L. Feenstra

Publisher

John Wiley and Sons; Wiley (John Wiley & Sons); John Wiley & Sons Inc.; Wiley (ISSN 1057-9230)

Published

2009

Language

EN

Field

Economics, Econometrics and Finance (Social Sciences)