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Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030 by Colin D Mathers; Dejan Loncar is a Medicine article available to read on EtoBox.

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## Background Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. ## Methods and Findings Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios—baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic—based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availabil

Who reads Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030?

Author

Colin D Mathers; Dejan Loncar

Publisher

Public Library of Science

Published

2006

Language

EN

Field

Medicine (Health Sciences)