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A daily drought index-based regional drought forecasting using the Global Forecast System model outputs over China by Xia Zhang; Yawen Duan; Jianping Duan; Liang Chen; Dongnan Jian; Meixia Lv; Qing Yang; Zhuguo Ma is a Earth and Planetary Sciences article available to read on EtoBox.

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Drought is a complicated climatic phenomenon occurring in the phase of water scarcity and can have devastating ecological and social impacts. Reliable drought forecasting can benefit various sectors by allowing adequate lead times for drought mitigation efforts. However, drought forecasting, especially on a short-term lead timescale (within two weeks), is still challenging. In this study, we performed regional meteorological drought forecasting at short-term lead times based on a daily drought index (Daily Evapotranspiration Deficit drought Index, DEDI) using modeling outputs from Global Forecast System (GFS) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction in typical climatic regions of China. The skills of the 3-, 5-, 10-, and 14-day lead regional DEDI forecasts were systematically evaluated by comparing with the DEDI derived from the ERA5 reanalysis datasets of European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts which was used as a proxy for observations. Results show that the GFS-based DEDI forecasts can realistically characterize the spatial and temporal variations of the regional drought events that occurred in North China, Southwest China, eastern Northwest China, and Northea

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Author

Xia Zhang; Yawen Duan; Jianping Duan; Liang Chen; Dongnan Jian; Meixia Lv; Qing Yang; Zhuguo Ma

Publisher

Elsevier BV

Published

2022

Language

EN

Field

Earth and Planetary Sciences (Physical Sciences)