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A p-value for Process Tracing and other N=1 Studies by Lopez, Matias; Bowers, Jake is a scholarly article available to read on EtoBox.

What is A p-value for Process Tracing and other N=1 Studies about?

We introduce a method for calculating \(p\)-values when testing causal theories about a single case, for instance when conducting process tracing. As in Fisher's (1935) original design, our \(p\)-value indicates how frequently one would find the same or more favorable evidence while entertaining a rival theory (the null) for the sake of argument. We use an urn model to represent the null distribution and calibrate it to privilege false negative errors and reduce false positive errors. We also present an approach to sensitivity analysis and for representing the evidentiary weight of different observations. Our test suits any type of evidence, such as data from interviews and archives, observed in any combination. We apply our hypothesis test in two studies: a process tracing classic about the cause of the cholera outburst in Soho (Snow 1855) and a recent process tracing based explanation of the cause of a welfare policy shift in Uruguay (Rossel, Antia, and Manzi 2023).

Author

Lopez, Matias; Bowers, Jake

Published

2023

Language

EN