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## Abstract The interannual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) movement has been found to be rather significant in certain regions of the western North Pacific. Westward and northwestward moving TCs are found to occur mostly at low latitudes and have the largest interannual variations in the region just east of the Philippines and over the northern part of the South China Sea. The area east of the Ryukyu Islands and south of Japan is identified as having the largest interannual variation of northward moving TCs. Correlations are made between the annual number of occurrences of TCs in these prescribed regions and the principal components of the monthly mean 850‐ and 500‐hPa zonal wind patterns over the western North Pacific (for the months of November of the previous year to April of the current year). Westward‐moving cyclones are found to correlate well with the 850‐hPa zonal wind patterns in January and March. Using the principal components associated with these patterns, prediction equations are then developed using the total (dependent) sample and the jackknife method (simulating an independent sample). The predictions made with both the dependent and “independent” samples are

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Author

Johnny C. L. Chan

Publisher

John Wiley and Sons; Wiley (John Wiley & Sons); John Wiley & Sons Inc.; Wiley (ISSN 0899-8418)

Published

1994

Language

EN

Field

Environmental Science (Physical Sciences)